Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 32,424
2 Florida 29,492
3 Mississippi 28,347
4 Arizona 27,875
5 Alabama 26,154
6 Georgia 24,345
7 South Carolina 23,404
8 Nevada 22,702
9 Tennessee 22,672
10 New York 22,666
11 Texas 22,411
12 New Jersey 21,884
13 Iowa 21,065
14 Rhode Island 20,840
15 Arkansas 20,581
16 District of Columbia 19,946
17 Illinois 19,040
18 Idaho 18,499
19 California 18,273
20 Maryland 18,163
21 Nebraska 18,090
22 Delaware 18,021
23 Massachusetts 17,574
24 Utah 16,516
25 North Carolina 16,317
26 North Dakota 16,102
27 South Dakota 15,828
28 Kansas 15,284
29 Oklahoma 15,192
30 Connecticut 14,895
31 Indiana 14,535
32 Missouri 14,479
33 Virginia 14,356
34 Wisconsin 14,128
35 Minnesota 13,677
36 New Mexico 12,214
37 Kentucky 11,796
38 Michigan 11,475
39 Pennsylvania 10,980
40 Ohio 10,759
41 Puerto Rico 10,646
42 Washington 10,315
43 Colorado 10,139
44 Alaska 8,449
45 Montana 7,218
46 Wyoming 6,757
47 Oregon 6,421
48 Hawaii 6,332
49 West Virginia 5,938
50 New Hampshire 5,375
51 Maine 3,397
52 Vermont 2,623

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Kansas 288
2 South Dakota 256
3 North Dakota 247
4 Tennessee 223
5 Missouri 206
6 Alabama 204
7 Iowa 196
8 Louisiana 193
9 Idaho 191
10 Mississippi 189
11 Kentucky 188
12 Florida 184
13 Georgia 177
14 Oklahoma 176
15 Nebraska 163
16 Hawaii 153
17 Texas 152
18 North Carolina 147
19 Illinois 144
20 South Carolina 141
21 Arkansas 138
22 California 130
23 Rhode Island 124
24 Indiana 121
25 Puerto Rico 120
26 Montana 116
27 Utah 113
28 Minnesota 112
29 Wisconsin 111
30 Virginia 109
31 Nevada 102
32 Ohio 99
33 West Virginia 98
34 Maryland 83
35 Delaware 70
36 Alaska 66
37 Michigan 66
38 Pennsylvania 63
39 Washington 62
40 Connecticut 57
41 Arizona 55
42 District of Columbia 55
43 New Mexico 52
44 Wyoming 52
45 Colorado 50
46 Oregon 41
47 New Jersey 37
48 New York 36
49 Maine 13
50 New Hampshire 13
51 Vermont 11
52 Massachusetts -343

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,797
2 New York 1,673
3 Massachusetts 1,314
4 Connecticut 1,252
5 Louisiana 1,076
6 Rhode Island 992
7 District of Columbia 861
8 Mississippi 848
9 Arizona 696
10 Michigan 679
11 Illinois 656
12 Delaware 622
13 Maryland 622
14 Pennsylvania 608
15 South Carolina 542
16 Florida 535
17 Georgia 533
18 Indiana 493
19 Texas 454
20 Alabama 452
21 Nevada 434
22 New Mexico 376
23 Iowa 359
24 Ohio 357
25 Colorado 340
26 California 337
27 Minnesota 333
28 New Hampshire 317
29 Virginia 309
30 Arkansas 278
31 Missouri 271
32 North Carolina 267
33 Washington 266
34 Tennessee 258
35 Kentucky 225
36 Nebraska 210
37 Idaho 209
38 Oklahoma 207
39 North Dakota 199
40 Wisconsin 197
41 South Dakota 191
42 Kansas 157
43 Puerto Rico 138
44 Utah 129
45 West Virginia 128
46 Oregon 112
47 Montana 101
48 Maine 98
49 Vermont 92
50 Wyoming 70
51 Hawaii 52
52 Alaska 49

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Mississippi 9
2 Arkansas 6
3 Florida 5
4 Georgia 5
5 Louisiana 5
6 South Carolina 5
7 Texas 4
8 Alabama 3
9 California 3
10 Kentucky 3
11 Nevada 3
12 New Mexico 3
13 West Virginia 3
14 Hawaii 2
15 Idaho 2
16 Iowa 2
17 Missouri 2
18 North Carolina 2
19 North Dakota 2
20 Tennessee 2
21 Virginia 2
22 Wyoming 2
23 Arizona 1
24 Illinois 1
25 Indiana 1
26 Michigan 1
27 Minnesota 1
28 Montana 1
29 Nebraska 1
30 New Jersey 1
31 Ohio 1
32 Oklahoma 1
33 Pennsylvania 1
34 Rhode Island 1
35 Washington 1
36 Wisconsin 1
37 Alaska 0
38 Colorado 0
39 Connecticut 0
40 Delaware 0
41 District of Columbia 0
42 Kansas 0
43 Maine 0
44 Maryland 0
45 Massachusetts 0
46 New Hampshire 0
47 New York 0
48 Oregon 0
49 Puerto Rico 0
50 South Dakota 0
51 Utah 0
52 Vermont 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Trousdale Tennessee 143,477 1 99
Lafayette Florida 143,078 2 99
Lincoln Arkansas 123,618 3 99
Lake Tennessee 120,867 4 99
Chattahoochee Georgia 117,081 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 37,690 164 94
Richland South Carolina 27,516 360 88
Orange California 15,474 1022 67
York South Carolina 15,446 1025 67
Pierce Washington 8,396 1869 40

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,612 1 99
Galax city Virginia 4,412 2 99
Randolph Georgia 3,983 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,634 4 99
Neshoba Mississippi 3,469 5 99
Richland South Carolina 471 696 77
Davidson Tennessee 375 898 71
Orange California 317 1045 66
Pierce Washington 210 1400 55
York South Carolina 174 1548 50

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons